Research supports moving away from race as a risk factor

In a 2021 American Family Physician editorial on the dangers of incorporating a patient’s race into medical decision-making, Dr. Bonzo Reddick observed, “Although we may hear about biologic or genetic differences between races, there is more variation within races than there is between them.” A recent landmark report from the National Institutes of Health’s All of Us Research Program compared self-identified race and ethnicity categories to continental and subcontinental genetic variation. Analyzing about 2 million common variants in the genomes of more than 230,000 unrelated participants, they found that “participants within self-identified race and ethnicity groups exhibit gradients of genetic variation rather than discrete clusters.”

Among White participants, 8% were found to have some South Asian ancestry, whereas smaller percentages had more than 50% African or Native American ancestry. Similarly, 1 in 100 self-identified Black participants had more than 50% European ancestry. The study also found notable regional differences in ancestry percentages among self-identified Black, Hispanic, and White participants. The researchers concluded that these gradients reflect “the historical impacts of US colonization, the transatlantic slave trade, and recent migrations” and “demonstrate that social constructs of race and ethnicity do not accurately reflect underlying genetic variation.”

Maternal race—specifically, Black race—is associated with increased risk for the development of preeclampsia. In its 2021 recommendation statement on aspirin to prevent preeclampsia and related morbidity and mortality, the US Preventive Services Task Force included Black race as a moderate risk factor, although it noted that it was a proxy for “environmental, social, and historical inequities, … not biological propensities.” However, a multicenter cohort study in JAMA Network Open found that Black race, similar to other moderate risks such as nulliparity, maternal age older than 35 years, and body mass index above 30, was not clearly associated with preeclampsia in the absence of a high risk factor (eg, chronic hypertension).

Finally, a narrative article in the New England Journal of Medicine traced the historical debate over race-based hemoglobin thresholds that began in the 1970s, when epidemiologic analyses showed that on average, Black children’s serum hemoglobin levels were 0.5 g/dL lower than those of White children. Did this disparity reflect inherent biological differences between races or differences in nutrition? Should it support race-based definitions of normal hemoglobin levels? Although some analyses accounting for socioeconomic status and diet no longer found significant racial differences, conflicting guidance from the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention persisted into the early 2000s. Today, the World Health Organization, American Academy of Pediatrics, and American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists all recommend against using race-adjusted cutoffs for diagnosing anemia.

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This post first appeared on the AFP Community Blog.

RFK Jr. is wrong about the US Preventive Services Task Force

Responding to President Trump's criticism of a federal judge who ruled against his asylum policy during his first term, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts released this statement: "We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges. What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them." I am not qualified to comment on how closely federal and Supreme Court justices adhere to the partisan positions of the Presidents who appointed them. However, I was reminded of this statement when, over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal and multiple other news outlets reported that HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was planning to fire all the members of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) because he considers them "too woke."

I worked for the USPSTF during the Bush and Obama administrations. The transition was seamless; the work went on as before. In the November 2009 uproar caused by the unfortunate timing of the USPSTF's release of a new statement recommending that routine mammography begin at age 50 rather than 40, then-HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius clumsily tried to throw the Task Force under the bus by observing (correctly) that all of its members were appointed during the Bush administration - but this completely missed the point that members were selected for scientific expertise, not political ideology. In that respect, the USPSTF has been similar to the ACIP prior to RFK Jr.'s recently replacing all of the latter's members for nakedly political reasons.

"Woke" is such an overused pejorative in conservative political circles that it has lost all meaning, but it seems that the current HHS Secretary is responding to the Task Force's recent efforts to ensure that their recommendations are implemented equitably across people of all races and ethnicities, despite geographic and economic disparities in access to primary care and other resources critical for ensuring health. For example, it's well-documented that eligible Black patients are less likely than others to be offered or undergo lung cancer screening, and that interventions are needed to close this unacceptable gap. This is about as uncontroversial an idea in health care as there is, but apparently it is too much for RFK Jr. More likely, it's merely an excuse to replace the current highly qualified members with his handpicked ideologues. In the words of a former USPSTF member (and my friend and academic collaborator) Russ Harris, MD, MPH:

It may seem excessive [for the USPSTF] to spend so much time and energy on reviewing the evidence for health issues. After all, aren’t people supposed to “do your own research.” I wish it were that easy. What “doing your own research” usually leads to is finding a biased source on the internet or from an “influencer” on social media that is happy to give you their answer. That answer is certainly simple, but often wrong. Such answers are often based on self-interest, or on an ideological agenda, not on a careful review of the relevant evidence.

Recent letters to RFK Jr. from the American Medical Association and 104 health organizations (including 6 of which I am a current or former member) have rightly pointed out that federal policymakers and health insurance plans rely on the USPSTF recommendations to provide coverage of effective preventive services (those rated "A" or "B" with at least moderate certainty of moderate net benefit) such as certain cancer screenings, depression screenings, and preventive services for cardiovascular disease. To tell the truth, I'm less worried about my patients losing access to these services than I am that replacing the current Task Force would result in a flood of signoffs on services where the evidence is insufficient to know if they work (e.g., multicancer screening tests) or tests that sound great intuitively but have been proven to not work, such as screening for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis, which causes more strokes than it prevents but is nonetheless performed by lots of for-profit companies. The USPSTF is a bulwark in protecting Americans against ineffective or potentially harmful preventive health care, and if RFK Jr. follows through on firing the members of the current panel, that protection will almost certainly cease to exist.

Barrett esophagus and esophageal cancer: sometimes, less treatment is more

Affecting approximately 6% of persons older than 50 years, Barrett esophagus is a premalignant condition that increases the risk of developing esophageal cancer. However, the annual risk of progression to adenocarcinoma in the absence of high-grade dysplasia is low (0.12%-0.24%). Although expert consensus recommends endoscopic surveillance every 3 to 5 years in asymptomatic persons with Barrett esophagus, optimal intervals and the effectiveness of surveillance are not known.

A randomized controlled trial at 109 centers in the United Kingdom compared the outcomes of surveillance endoscopy every 2 years with “at need” endoscopy for symptoms only. In the trial, 3,453 participants with a recent diagnosis of Barrett esophagus with no or low-grade dysplasia were followed for a minimum of 10 years (mean 12.8 years). Symptoms that prompted endoscopy in the “at need” group included dysphagia, unexplained weight loss of more than 7 pounds, iron-deficiency anemia, recurrent vomiting, or worsening upper gastrointestinal symptoms. Within the participants, 93% of the surveillance group and 59% of the “at need” group received at least one endoscopy, with means of 3.5 and 1.4 endoscopies, respectively. Overall, 71 patients (2.1%) were diagnosed with esophageal cancer. There were no statistical differences in time to diagnosis of esophageal cancer, cancer stage at diagnosis, cancer-specific or overall survival.

Standard treatment for locally advanced esophageal cancer involves neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy. However, rates of serious postoperative complications (30%-50%), and in-hospital mortality (5%) are high. Active surveillance is a strategy to defer or avoid surgical complications in patients with a complete clinical response to chemoradiotherapy. A multicenter, cluster randomized, non-inferiority trial in 12 Dutch hospitals compared survival in 309 persons who received active surveillance vs esophagectomy within 2 weeks of chemoradiotherapy. Patients were eligible if they had no evidence of residual tumors on endoscopic biopsies, ultrasound, or PET-CT after chemoradiotherapy. After a median follow-up of 38 months, the intention-to-treat analysis found that a higher percentage of persons in the active surveillance group (75%) were alive than in the surgery group (70%). Those in the active surveillance group who underwent later surgery experienced similar postoperative complications as those who had standard surgery.

Although this study suggested that active surveillance may be a reasonable option for some with esophageal cancer, there are concerns about the durability of the findings beyond 2 years. A commentary on the study noted that the majority of patients do not have a complete response to chemoradiotherapy and would be ineligible for active surveillance. Surgeons outside of the trial also commented that the assessments for metastatic disease may not have been complete enough, resulting in many persons undergoing esophagectomy without benefit and reducing the apparent effectiveness of surgery.

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This post first appeared on the AFP Community Blog.

Health policy that is neither big nor beautiful

During my second and third years of residency (2002-2004), I periodically volunteered to see patients at a bare-bones clinic at a homeless shelter in Lancaster. We had limited amounts of donated supplies and medications and mostly treated acute problems. One evening, a patient with diabetes came in. He had been taking oral medications but could no longer afford them and was instead giving himself shots of insulin whenever he could afford a few vials. His hemoglobin A1c level was 15, meaning that he was walking around with an average blood sugar level of around 400 and was one mild illness away from a health catastrophe. I asked him to come see me in my faculty supervised clinic at the hospital and referred him to a social worker. Miraculously (in those pre-Affordable Care Act days, Medicaid eligibility was much less generous for single "able bodied" working adults without children), it turned out that he qualified for Medicaid. By the time I graduated, his diabetes, blood pressure, and cholesterol were well-controlled and he had saved enough money to move into his own apartment.

Like every major medical and hospital association in the United States, I lobbied against the budget reconciliation bill that squeaked through the House and Senate and that President Trump signed on July 4th. I send multiple e-mails to my representatives in Congress and encouraged others to do the same. The cuts to Medicaid and the USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), totaling $1 trillion over the next several years, don't even come close to filling the $4.3 trillion budget hole created by extending tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefit people like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Trump himself.

When some health policy researchers got wind of the options being considered to reduce federal Medicaid spending, they published a timely analysis in the Annals of Internal Medicine that projected the impacts of various cuts on Medicaid enrollment and the uninsured. The bill then being considered by the House was estimated to reduce the number of people with Medicaid by more than 10 million and increase the number of uninsured persons by nearly 8 million (because some people would be able to obtain another form of insurance due to increased income or becoming eligible for workplace coverage).

These estimates were horrifying enough, but the Senate version of the bill - the one that President Trump signed on America's 249th birthday - cut even deeper. 11.8 million people are expected to become uninsured, and (outside of the bill, due to Congressional inaction) an additional 5 million will lose private marketplace coverage due to no longer being able to afford to pay the premiums.

Medicaid is just the tip of the iceberg. As a fellow Pennsylvania physician observed, Medicaid cuts will hurt all American children - not just those publicly insured, since pediatric hospitals and health systems rely heavily on Medicaid rather than the relatively more generous Medicare payments that fund adult health care. States will either try to stretch reduced Medicaid funds to cover the same number of people, lower payments to doctors and hospitals, or both. Hospitals will be forced to close, leading to mass layoffs and more people with few insurance options other than Medicaid. Similarly, SNAP cuts will hurt American farmers and grocery stores in underserved areas where people will have less to spend on food. The Commonwealth Fund estimates that by 2029, the bill's impacts will include 1.2 million jobs lost nationally, depressing collective state gross domestic products by $154 billion and state and local tax revenue by $12.2 billion.

By then, a new administration will have been inaugurated that will need to clean up one big, ugly mess that the federal government created.

AI: augmenting the intelligence of family physicians

In a recent editorial, Dr. Joel Selanikio discussed how 24/7 access to generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools such as ChatGPT empowers patients to retrieve health information and self-manage low-acuity conditions that would have previously involved visiting a clinician. By embracing the capabilities of AI to reduce administrative burdens and improve clinical outcomes, Dr. Selanikio argued that practices can demonstrate “the unique and irreplaceable value doctors bring to health care.” Another opinion envisioned the rise of “AI-augmented generalists” who integrate the knowledge base of subspecialists and use large language models (LLMs) as “active cognitive collaborators.” New competencies required for the AI era include “AI system proficiency,” “collaborative problem-solving,” and “contextual adaptation.” Recently published and ongoing research provides several real-world examples.

A 2025 Graham Center Policy One-Pager synthesized information from online peer forums and vendor websites to compare costs and pros and cons of commercially available AI scribes. A study funded by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality is interviewing primary care clinicians and patients to identify barriers and facilitators to successful adoption of ambient digital scribe technology and to develop a prototype implementation guide for diverse primary care settings.

In addition to office notes, LLMs can be used to generate hospital discharge summaries. A study from the University of California, San Francisco, evaluated the accuracy and quality of LLM-generated discharge summaries for 100 randomly selected inpatient stays of 3 to 6 days’ duration. A team of blinded reviewers that included hospitalists, primary care physicians, and skilled nursing facility (SNF) physicians rated LLM and physician-authored summaries on comprehensiveness, concision, coherence, and errors (inaccuracies, omissions, and hallucinations). Overall, LLM narratives contained more errors but were rated as more concise and coherent than physician-generated narratives. Of note, primary care and SNF physicians—the end-users of discharge summaries—had more favorable views of LLM narratives than did hospitalists.

AI is being evaluated for its potential to assist clinical decision-making. In a single-center study of virtual urgent care visits for respiratory, urinary, vaginal, eye, or dental symptoms, AI-generated recommendations agreed with physician recommendations in 57% of cases and were more likely to be rated as optimal:

Our observations suggest that AI showed particular strength in adhering to clinical guidelines, recommending appropriate laboratory and imaging tests, and recommending necessary in-person referrals. It outperformed physicians in avoiding unjustified empirical treatments. … Conversely, physicians excelled in adapting to evolving or inconsistent patient narratives, … [and] also seemed to demonstrate better judgment in avoiding unnecessary ED referrals.

However, the AI in this study reported that it had insufficient confidence to provide a recommendation in 21% of cases.

Finally, a randomized trial examined the diagnostic accuracy of 50 US-licensed physicians who responded to clinical questions about a standardized chest pain video vignette featuring either a White male or Black female patient before and after receiving input from ChatGPT-4. This study showed that physicians were willing to modify their initial decisions based on suggestions from ChatGPT and that these changes led to improved accuracy without introducing or exacerbating demographic biases (eg, being less likely to diagnose the Black female patient with acute coronary syndrome).

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This post first appeared on the AFP Community Blog.

On chronic disease prevention, RFK Jr.'s actions speak louder than words

Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s agenda, he says, is chronic disease prevention. He wants Americans to eat fewer ultra-processed foods; to decline long-established childhood vaccines against diseases like the measles, which we never see anymore; and to drink public water supplies without fluoride, apparently as a boon to the dental profession. HHS recently announced that it will spend $10-20 million on a "Take Back Your Health Campaign" that is intended to "alert Americans to the role of processed foods in fueling the diabetes epidemic and other chronic diseases, inspire people to take personal responsibility for their diets, and drive measurable improvements in diabetes prevention and national health outcomes."

Diabetes is a big problem. I'm all for preventing diabetes through healthier eating. But the longest-running longitudinal study of diabetes prevention, the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes study, was terminated in March when the Trump administration froze hundreds of millions of dollars in federal health grants to Columbia University, where the study coordinating center is located:

The lapse in funding means that the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study can no longer continue to collect patient data as planned; it can no longer pay staff to do blood work, collect urine samples, scan brains, or conduct neurocognitive tests. Even worse, the study’s existing data are at risk. Scientists need funds to properly store and retrieve samples; they need money to pay for computer servers and to hire statisticians and analysts, who clean and curate the data.

HHS has traditionally relied on panels of non-government experts to guide its work in prevention, and after the DOGE-driven cuts that resulted in the departure of 20 percent of its workforce, it needs outside help more than ever. For decades, five independent scientific advisory panels made evidence-based recommendations on clinical preventive services, community preventive services, newborn screening tests, infection prevention, and immunizations. Two of these panels have already been dissolved, and the remaining three are on life support.

I wrote a Medscape commentary about current threats to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), which include the hobbling and proposed elimination of its convening agency (AHRQ) and a lawsuit that the Supreme Court should decide any day now. The USPSTF's sister panel, the Community Preventive Services Task Force, which "evaluates evidence and recommends effective interventions to improve health in the community, home, school, work, and health care settings," hasn't been convened at all this year.

The Advisory Committee on Heritable Disorders in Newborns and Children (ACHDNC), which since 2003 had been making evidence-based recommendations about a list of conditions for which every newborn should be screened, was disbanded by HHS in April for no particular reason. As a result, states have been left on their own to evaluate new screening tests:

Each year, newborn screening identifies about 14,000 infants with serious conditions that benefit from early intervention. Early detection can prevent death or irreversible harm in disorders like metabolic diseases, immune deficiencies, and muscular atrophies. Eliminating the ACHDNC creates a dangerous vacuum in the nation’s newborn screening system, stalling progress on adding life-saving tests to the RUSP and increasing the risk that diagnoses will be delayed or missed for some babies—with potentially tragic results.

The same fate befell the Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee (HICPAC), which was created in 1991 to advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on critical infection prevention and control practices. Over the past three-plus decades, HICPAC "advised and worked with the CDC to develop clinical guidelines, training resources, and expert guidance that were subsequently widely used throughout health care settings." Chronic diseases that can be prevented by reducing the risk of transmission in health care include HIV, hepatitis B and C, tuberculosis, and long COVID. HICPAC was dissolved by HHS at the end of March.

Finally, there is the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which RFK Jr. first bypassed by making unilateral changes to the COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for children and pregnant women, then remade by firing the entire committee and replacing them with a group that includes a physician who proudly identifies as an anti-vaxxer. This morning, 6 former chairs of the ACIP wrote an Op Ed in STAT that warns about millions of Americans losing access to safe, effective vaccines and the ability to develop new ones in response to future infectious threats:

Without transparent, evidence-based processes, vaccines may become inaccessible, unaffordable, or unavailable. Public trust will erode, innovation will stall, and lives will be lost unnecessarily. The systematic unraveling of our vaccine infrastructure endangers our freedom to protect ourselves and our communities. We urge congressional leaders to reflect on how these fragmented decisions collectively dismantle our ability to prevent disease and save lives.

Public health advocates frequently bemoan political obstacles to investing in evidence-based initiatives aimed at preventing chronic diseases. Today we have an HHS Secretary who is clearly interested in chronic disease prevention, but equally uninterested in evidence or established mechanisms for translating evidence into policy. As a former ACIP member recently told STAT, the message is clear: "Scientific expertise is no longer of use" unless it happens to align with what RFK Jr. already believes to be true. His terrible actions speak louder than words.